Electric cars will lead to the rich cities in 2030

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sales of electric cars increase, and goes in correlation with the price drop of the batteries and a higher capacity/autonomy (include plug-in hybrids)

The Alliance Renault Nissan has demonstrated to his rivals that can you make money making electric cars bulk. Also Tesla has indicated a way forward in the industry with its high-end models, the best there is in today’s world of electric cars.

The reasons why consumers will turn away even the electric cars are limited range, difficulty to reload, and a purchase price greater. These problems are narrowing of joint, so that its appeal continues to grow. Not only talking about passenger cars and motorcycles, also vans and pickup trucks.

more and more manufacturers announce not already an electric model, but a full range of them. We talk about heavy weights, such as VAG, BMW, Daimler, etc sales will grow significantly over the next decade, there are manufacturers who estimate that one of four sales applicable to vehicles of electric actuation. Last year he came to one million electric and plug-in hybrids in circulation.

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Opel Ampera-e in Paris

Another important factor is the reduction huge price of batteries in a very few years, a 65% less compared to 2010, according to data from the consulting firm McKinsey presented yesterday. Over the next decade the prices have dropped more than 90% with respect to that year, so that the price of batteries is becoming less problematic.

on the other hand, the capacity of the batteries increases, and there are models that promise autonomies approved beyond the 300 kilometers, as we recently saw. The extensors of autonomy are another solution to be able to do some traveling time, not to mention plug-in hybrids, that long-distance does not have problems of autonomy where they sell gasoline.

One of the most important factors that trigger the demand for this type of vehicles, becoming more affordable, will be the mobility policies of large cities. On a site like New Delhi it was ridiculous to prohibit the circulation in the historic centre or central nucleus, few can afford an electric, but it is another thing to London, Singapore or Oslo.

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Model Batteries (launch) Autonomy Batteries (improved) Autonomy
BMW i3 22 kWh 190 km 33 kWh 300 km
Nissan Leaf 24 kWh 170 km 30 kWh 250 km
Opel Ampera-e 60 kWh >500 km
Renault ZOE 22 kWh 210 km 41 kWh 400 km

With the time, every time, there will be more large cities, which hinder a lot the life to the owners of traditional cars, and, at the same time, facilitate the things to those that use electric models. These latter do not contribute to local pollution or generate noise: they are more compatible with modern life.

The McKinsey study says that of the total number of vehicles circulating will be up to 60% with electric propulsion for the year 2030, but in rich cities. There you will be able to go to closing/restricting the traffic, the recharging infrastructure will be the most usable, and the tax will encourage change. Conventional cars will go to the outskirts and the periphery to a great extent.

we must Not lose sight of other trends, such as driving autonomously in the city, or shared cars, reducing the need to have private vehicle, so there will be more facilities to park and fewer vehicles circulating. It is more, some cars will be able to make “taxi” to bring income to their owners, and as well sand down the costs of ownership and maintenance.

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Renault ZOE

however, the public transport networks must be able to absorb that change in patterns of mobility, because when the private car is not competitive, the public service is more attractive. All of these challenges will test the quality of urban managers in the coming years, a scenario where there will be less private cars, but more mobility.

conventional vehicles with higher ballots to disappear from the urban centers are the diesel, and is a phenomenon primarily european and to a lesser extent, asian countries like South Korea or India. Depending on the type-approval emissions for each model, the move will be more or less difficult, or you will be banned. The petrol will be the following.

10 years Ago who would make a forecast so it would have been branded a lunatic. Some rulers inflated a lot of expectations of expansion of the el├ętricos, setting impossible goals, like a million electric cars on Spain or Germany before 2020. Over the next decade, change will accelerate much, so that the objectives are achievable.