The cartel of producer countries of oil are not worried by the emergence of cars that run on electricity
the last report of The cartel (World Oil Outlook) is very optimistic about the use of vehicles with conventional engines, represent 94% in 2040. The size of the park’s mobile world is estimated at 2,100 million cars, almost double the number there now.
demand will grow
by 2016 it is estimated a demand of 94,13 million barrels per day (Mbd), a figure that will increase to 97,4 Mbd in 2020. Within 25 years, the figure will have reached 109,8 Mbd. This increased demand will come from asian countries, not the western industrialized nations.
Asia will burn for 36% of the petroleum in 2040, which exceeds the consumption of all the countries of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD). OPEC justified in the increase of population that experiences and a growing consumption of energy for their development.
Petrol and diesel are used in 94% of 2,100 million cars within 25 years, according to the OPEC
The barrel of oil is approaching the border of the 30 dollars. Brent, of reference in Europe, closed yesterday at 37,93 usd, and WTI, the benchmark in America, 38,10 usd. If it gets Iran to produce oil in large quantities, may collapse to the $ 20, according to Goldman Sachs.
The Brent and WTI blend oil from OPEC and other sources
however, OPEC does not believe that lasts a long time that, as you go reducing the oil production that is not of the cartel. In other words, the fracking in the united States, if they follow the low prices will have to close many farms for lack of profitability.
As you go balancing demand, OPEC estimates that its prices will reach 70 dollars per barrel in 2020, and in 25 years, to around $ 100. The barrels of reference will cost more, since they have oil of different origins. Consequently, in 2040 we can talk about a lot more money.
OPEC is convinced that fossil energy will continue to be three-quarters of the energy supply in 2040
¿From where will come the energy?
In 2013, the fossil fuels (gas, coal, and oil) accounted for 82% of the energy consumed. The OPEC believes that in 2040 its contribution will decline by only 4%, up to 78%. The oil will be used 5% less, while the gas will be used 6% more. The gas reserves exceed several times the reserves of oil, coal and there are literally plenty.
renewable energy (solar, hydro, wind, biomass, tidal and geothermal) will only provide 16% of the energy consumption, always according to this source. In terms of the nuclear energy, it will go from 4.9% to 5.9%, considering that the nuclear fuel is available at a very low amounts.
In other words, OPEC is not worried at all by the irruption of the electric cars (plug-in hybrids or pure electric), because the battery technology has not improved substantially, and with the oil at moderate prices, are not as profitable.
emissions Limits means provided for Europe, China, the united States and Japan for the next 10 years
The prediction points to a decline in the price of batteries by 30% to 50%, but that will not be enough to succeed because of consumer resistance to change. The autonomy and the recharge time are still factors that weigh too much.
Another source, Goldman Sachs, points to a fall in the price of the batteries 60%
In contrast, recall the decision of Toyota, in 2050, will no longer market any vehicle that operates with gasoline or diesel. we Can consider the prediction of the OPEC as optimistic according to their interests. 94% of energy consumption based on oil for cars is excessive for 2040.
OPEC was earning an estimated $ 1.2 trillion per year in 2012, today wins the third part. In virtually all producer countries accounts no longer come out, oil is too cheap. There is an excess of demand, but this is done to sink the american industry of shale gas or hydraulic break (fracking).
¿Who is going to lose this pulse? to go to ruin first.