Increasing concern about the possible “Brexit”

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Honda Factory in Swindon

¿Brexit or Bremain? Those are the two options of the referendum held in two weeks, with a one-year advancement over the plan. The prime minister, David Cameron, promised in 2013 a consultation on the status of the United Kingdom regarding the European Union, which already is a little bit special. For example, have not adopted the Euro, continue with the pound sterling as a currency.

In this country, there are several car factories, in fact it is the third european country most passenger cars it produces, after of Spain, and the fourth if we consider all types of vehicles, behind France. In 2015, they built nearly 1.6 million units in total, as opposed to nearly 2.42 million in Spain. As is obvious, almost everything that produced the United Kingdom is exported, mainly to the European Union: 46.340 million euros in value in 2015.

The car industry and british would be a rotting corpse, were it not for foreign investment: BMW, Honda, Nissan, Toyota, General Motors, Volkswagen Group, Tata or Ford are good examples. Of the more than 50 manufacturers that they had in the mid-TWENTIETH Century, very few survive, and almost all are in the hands of foreign capital.

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Factory MINI in Oxford

The polls are suggesting almost a tie between the two positions, and, of course, concerned to win the yes to the split. The uk would lose the current status with the European Union, and would have to be renegotiated their position. What scenarios are covered? What feature in the Elcano Royal Institute:

  1. special Relationship with the EU
  2. Relationship similar to that of Norway
  3. Back to the zone EFTA
  4. Relationship similar to that of Switzerland
  5. trade Agreement with the EU
  6. Relationship similar to that of Turkey
  7. Mediation with the World Trade Organization (WTO)

None of these formulas is the more beneficial for the Uk than the current mode. If you want to have access to the european common market, its main customer, must allow the freedom of people, not only the goods, and also would have to contribute to the EU budget, but without the possibility of taking decisions.

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Source: The Economist – CC BY SA

The position of foreign manufacturers

, we Find two positions, or do not comment, or are favourable to everything to remain as it was. The milmillonarias investments committed with the archipelago are not compromised or in danger, but yes it will be medium and long-term if it breaks the agreement with the EU. The increase of tariffs or trade barriers, would cause the country to be less competitive, and would have to be offset by a devaluation of the pound, or painful cuts. This would help exports, but it would be a problem for imports from the outside.

Japan, for example, has holed up in the Uk to 59,000 million dollars, and is the largest single investment it has received in addition to the united States. Some 1,300 companies in japan employ up to 140,000 british, according to the data that David Cameron gave last month. The uncertainty on the result is affecting the price of the pound.

In his time, chose the United Kingdom for the manufacture of vehicles for multiple reasons, including trade agreements with the germ of the European Union, previously European Economic Community (EEC). In fact, this country was one of the first partners to have strong relationships with the continent-level commercial and political since the Second World War.

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Factory of Nissan in Sunderland

In 2015 they registered in the European Union 13.71 an million units, of which 2,6 enrolled in the United Kingdom. It is the second country that most cars registered in the European Union, behind Germany (3.2 million) and ahead of France (1.92 million). It is a market very lucrative, despite the fact that there is that produce for them with steering wheel on the right.

rising trade barriers, the european producers would be affected in their exports to that country

The relationship with other countries such as united States, India, or Japan I would have no issues in a first term, since they do not form part of the EU. Spain, as an exporting country, you might notice a slowdown in their exports, now that we are very close to reaching the goal of three million units, which was put ANFAC in 2012.

on the other hand, brexit can also have adverse consequences for the Uk at the domestic level, starting with more referendums of independence as there was in Scotland, not to mention the consequences at the level of economic and employment in general. In two weeks we will leave doubts.