The doubts about Tesla stoop quickly listed on the stock exchange

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Quote of Tesla to 7/7/2017 – Google Stock

In a very short time Tesla has received an important corrective on the New York Stock exchange. You have lost all the progress from the month of may, when it broke the psychological barrier of $ 300 per title. Tesla came to be worth more than General Motors or Ford, that is to say, the first automotive american in bag.

The peak valuation occurred on the 23rd of June, 383,45 dollars at the close of the session. From there, investors have seen in many cases that was the moment of undoing positions, that is to say, sell. With the exception of Wednesday 28th, the share price has fallen, session after session, but with a support (not expected to fall in a short time) of $ 300.

In other words, the valuation of Tesla is volatile, can change a lot of value in a short time, and is subject to some speculation. What are these falls, now that the Tesla Model 3 is already happening? Perhaps the market was expecting better news?

In synthesis, is that same.

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Tesla Model 3

back in November, Tesla had a quote of $ 180, , his climbing has been brutal. The best hope for Tesla is the Model 3, a model which, without being accessible to the entire world (from $ 35,000), gets in the market of sedans average Premium with arguments excellent.

however, although the production has already started, it’s going to be a pace very staggered. In July only going to produce about 30 cars, which will be delivered to the first customers at a party on the 28th of July. In August, planned to do 100 a month, 1,500 in September, and 20,000 before the end of the year.

According to a report from Goldman Sachs, there are doubts about the ability of Tesla to deliver cars to customers. In the second quarter, there were about 22,000 deliveries, to 2,200 below forecast, and that speaking of the Model S and X. The problem is in lack of batteries of 100 kWh, a subject of the gigafactoría Nevada.

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According to Goldman Sachs, right now Tesla has a valuation of $ 180 per share

In other words, Goldman Sachs believes that Tesla should be worth the same that it was in November, and recently were listed at more than double that amount ($360). Another way of looking at it, GS does not consider that Tesla is worth more than General Motors or Ford. That report pushed the price lower by 11% on Wednesday.

on the other hand, the report from the IIHS about the safety of the model S have not helped, and the price fell another 5.6 per cent on Thursday. In short, the 2017 Model S has not improved the ratings of last year, although the company has made improvements to the car since then. is starting to do veteran, came to market in 2012.

According to the NHTSA, is the car more safe that have been tested

is Not that the Tesla Model S is unsafe, it is that is not the safest of its category (bear in mind the expectations) and that has not improved the result, “acceptable” in the test of a front-end collision with little overlap (small overlap). In addition, some of their features braking autonomous continue to be blocked and cannot be proven.

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Comparison of the evidence of the small overlap of the Tesla Model S

Concluding, the fate of Tesla is tied to the Model 3, their model of volume. The later appearance of the Model, And the crossover, should be accompanied by industrial production, in another place, and I’m thinking in Europe or in China. For the asian market, will eventually need to factory if they do not change the laws.

In virtue of the above, I think it’s very likely that Tesla can retrieve a value of more than $ 300, but do not take as a recommendation of investment. If the Model 3 meet the deadlines and do not appear significant problems of quality, the price will rise.

In 2018, Tesla wants to achieve a rate of 500,000 cars per year, adding up to the Model S, X and 3. In 2020, aims to reach one million. You can have up to five gigafactorías in a very few years. In 2025, several large manufacturers will be in the streets of some 250,000 electric each year, Tesla will continue to sell -according to your forecast- more than several of them together.